Oscar predictions!

First off, let me start this post by saying FUCK CABLEVISION! For those of you who haven't heard, because Cablevision and ABC were not able to come to an agreement on retransmission fees, over 3 million households in the Tri-State area no longer have their local ABC 7 channel as of 12:01 AM this morning - meaning they won't be able to watch the Oscars tonight! Let me just say I don't give a shit who's right or who's wrong here; these are two multi billion dollar corporations trying to rip each other off and I have sympathy for neither. However, since I have to pay Cablevision over $20 a month just to get my seven basic channels that I can otherwise get free-over-the air with an antenna, the fact that they are taking away one of those channels on one of the most important TV nights of the year is completely and utterly despicable! I had originally planned to live blog the ceremony, but that's obviously no longer possible now. If like me, you're also suffering under Cablevision, you can get live updates on IMDB (also via their Twitter feed) or read a live blog on Deadline Hollywood.

Anyways, enough ranting and procrastinating, here are my closely-guarded picks for who should and who will win the most important awards of the night:

Best Picture
As much as I hate to say it, my favorite movie of 2009, District 9, has absolutely zero chance of winning this award. Neither do 6 other movies - The Blind Side, An Education, Precious, A Serious Man, Up in the Air and Up. I won't go into detail on why these movies have no shot, it ranges from no one saw them to the fact that they were just included to appease the masses. Most people think this is a David versus Goliath story, the $2.5 billion behemoth that is Avatar versus The Hurt Locker, that movie James Cameron's ex-wife made. While those two are certainly the front runners, don't discount the Weinstein brothers sinister and prodigious sway with the Oscar voters, making Inglorious Basterds, a viable Dark Horse candidate. In case anyone thinks I'm exaggerating, you can read up on how Shakespeare in Love stole the award from Saving Private Ryan in 1999. In the end however, I see Avatar taking down Best Picture, much like Titanic before it, since the biggest grossing movie of all time is hard to ignore, and also the movie deserves praise for bringing James Cameron's singular vision to life, as well as pushing the boundaries of film making.

Should win: Avatar
Will win: Avatar

Best Director
I'm picking Kathryn Bigelow to win Best Director. She is only the fourth woman to ever be nominated the award, and would be the first ever to win. She is a wonderful director, responsible for works such as Point Break and K-19, and a pioneer in the action genre that is typically dominated by men. The Hurt Locker was a great film, better than Avatar in my opinion, and should be honored as such. So this compromise of Best Picture to Avatar, Best Director to Bigelow seems like the perfect compromise. Even James Cameron is fine with the arrangement, he "don't really need another one" anyway.

Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz aka the Jew Hunter will win this hands down. This is the least controversial/contentious category of the night. Let's just hope he has an interesting acceptance speech. Moving on.

Should win: Christoph Waltz

Will win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique has been sweeping up all the awards with her monstrous and horrifying performance as Precious's mother so she enters as the favorite. Prior to this she has been mainly a comedian, so this is undoubtedly her breakthrough role. Let's hope she can keep it up. I love Maggie Gyllenhaal but I haven't seen Crazy Heart so I can't say if she should win. I did really love Vera Farmiga's performance in Up in the Air, even though she won't pose much of a challenge to Mo'Nique. I thought Farmiga was absolutely stunning as the gorgeous, smoldering partner in crime of George Clooney. You can read more about her performance in my review here. The good thing is Mo'Nique has been giving very gracious and funny acceptance speeches, so I'm looking forward to when her name gets called. Oh wait I forgot, Cablevision fucked me over, guess I won't be seeing her after all...

Should win: Mo'Nique
Will win: Mo'Nique

Best Actor:

Should win: Jeff Bridges

Will win: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress:

Should win: Meryl Streep

Will win: Sandra Bullock

Best Writing (Original Screenplay):
Should win: Inglorious Basterds
Will win: Inglorious Basterds

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Should win: Up in the Air
Will win: Up in the Air